prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 3 Tennessee 24 33.3, 31 Cleveland 10 5.7
86% 16 Philadelphia 34 29.0, 30 Arizona 9 11.3
81% 8 Denver 38 29.6, 27 San Diego 37 15.6
79% 6 Baltimore 27 21.0, 21 Dallas 0 10.2
77% 22 New England 16 18.0, 29 Cincinnati 13 9.4
65% 14 Minnesota 31 22.7, 18 Carolina 17 17.9
64% 1 Oakland 31 22.7, 15 New Orleans 22 18.4
62% 24 San Francisco 16 23.1, 26 Atlanta 6 19.7
41% 19 Green Bay 26 25.3, 11 Indianapolis 24 27.0
41% 13 Buffalo 21 18.9, 17 Kansas City 17 20.5
30% 12 Washington 33 27.5, 7 St. Louis 20 34.8
30% 10 New York Jets 20 17.3, 2 Miami 3 24.4
23% 20 Detroit 31 9.9, 9 New York Giants 21 18.5
18% 28 Chicago 13 10.2, 4 Tampa Bay 10 24.3
18% 23 Jacksonville 34 9.8, 5 Pittsburgh 24 23.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 3 1.58 5 0.53 4 0.61 1 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 8 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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