prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 Tennessee 31 25.8, 23 Dallas 0 8.7
83% 22 Washington 20 25.3, 30 Arizona 3 10.0
80% 19 Philadelphia 16 26.7, 28 Cincinnati 7 13.4
77% 8 Pittsburgh 34 26.4, 26 San Diego 21 15.9
77% 2 Baltimore 34 16.8, 13 New York Jets 20 8.3
76% 9 Miami 27 18.4, 25 New England 24 9.8
72% 3 Oakland 52 22.9, 12 Carolina 9 15.8
69% 5 Indianapolis 31 33.5, 14 Minnesota 10 27.1
64% 10 Denver 38 31.3, 15 San Francisco 9 26.5
60% 6 New York Giants 28 19.2, 7 Jacksonville 25 17.3
45% 11 Green Bay 17 21.2, 4 Tampa Bay 14 22.0
40% 16 St. Louis 26 28.1, 18 New Orleans 21 30.4
37% 24 Buffalo 42 17.0, 21 Seattle 23 20.7
25% 29 Atlanta 29 13.6, 20 Kansas City 13 21.8
17% 27 Chicago 23 6.3, 17 Detroit 20 20.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.57 3 1.02 5 1.06 4 0.90 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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