prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
70% 2 Baltimore 21 24.2, 6 Denver 3 17.5
56% 8 Miami 23 19.9, 4 Indianapolis 17 18.9
50% 17 New Orleans 31 29.1, 12 St. Louis 28 29.0
39% 16 Philadelphia 21 17.9, 5 Tampa Bay 3 20.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.89 2 0.76 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 3 1.27
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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