prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 1 Baltimore 17 25.3, 26 Chicago 6 4.1
76% 23 Seattle 9 24.6, 31 Cleveland 6 14.2
69% 3 Oakland 27 26.8, 19 Kansas City 24 18.9
68% 7 Tampa Bay 10 22.6, 25 Dallas 6 16.1
66% 24 San Francisco 16 23.9, 27 Atlanta 13 18.2
62% 13 Green Bay 28 20.9, 17 Detroit 6 17.5
53% 6 Indianapolis 45 23.6, 9 New York Jets 24 22.9
51% 8 Denver 31 20.9, 4 New York Giants 20 20.7
49% 12 Jacksonville 21 20.3, 5 Pittsburgh 3 20.4
41% 18 New Orleans 24 18.4, 20 Buffalo 6 20.1
39% 15 St. Louis 20 26.5, 10 Philadelphia 17 30.4
36% 21 Carolina 24 18.5, 16 Minnesota 13 23.3
35% 29 Cincinnati 23 14.0, 22 New England 17 18.3
25% 28 San Diego 30 12.9, 14 Washington 3 22.0
21% 11 Miami 31 9.3, 2 Tennessee 23 20.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.93 7 0.88 3 0.44 1 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 8 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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