prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 6 New York Giants 23 32.6, 31 Washington 9 4.0
88% 4 Oakland 28 39.9, 29 Dallas 21 13.2
83% 2 St. Louis 35 36.9, 27 Detroit 0 18.5
79% 5 Baltimore 26 20.0, 19 Tennessee 7 9.1
67% 10 New Orleans 28 21.0, 20 Minnesota 15 15.5
67% 7 Denver 20 27.6, 9 Kansas City 6 20.8
65% 8 Pittsburgh 16 14.5, 18 Cincinnati 7 9.8
62% 14 Miami 30 19.4, 15 New England 10 16.1
60% 25 New York Jets 42 20.0, 28 Buffalo 36 17.8
60% 13 Chicago 31 17.6, 21 Atlanta 3 15.3
59% 23 San Francisco 24 15.8, 24 Carolina 14 14.3
37% 22 Cleveland 20 15.5, 11 San Diego 16 19.1
30% 26 Seattle 24 13.8, 12 Jacksonville 15 21.0
16% 16 Tampa Bay 14 7.9, 1 Green Bay 10 23.2
8% 30 Arizona 21 7.2, 3 Philadelphia 20 43.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 8 1.17 1 1.27 3 0.78 2 0.55 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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