prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 11 Chicago 20 28.3, 29 Arizona 13 9.2
86% 20 Minnesota 31 29.0, 31 Detroit 26 8.0
80% 1 St. Louis 15 28.3, 8 New York Giants 14 14.5
79% 25 Dallas 9 27.9, 30 Washington 7 15.6
74% 12 New Orleans 27 17.9, 26 Carolina 25 10.0
69% 14 New England 29 24.9, 21 San Diego 26 18.0
67% 19 San Francisco 37 24.9, 28 Atlanta 31 18.8
61% 4 Oakland 23 33.2, 10 Indianapolis 18 30.3
59% 3 Green Bay 31 17.1, 2 Baltimore 23 15.3
57% 7 Pittsburgh 20 11.2, 13 Kansas City 17 10.2
53% 17 New York Jets 21 20.3, 15 Miami 17 19.7
42% 24 Cincinnati 24 13.6, 23 Cleveland 14 14.9
27% 18 Seattle 34 18.3, 5 Denver 21 26.6
23% 22 Tennessee 31 9.6, 6 Tampa Bay 28 18.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.32 3 1.53 5 0.79 2 1.16 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 11 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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