prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 3 St. Louis 34 33.5, 19 New York Jets 14 20.1
69% 16 Tennessee 27 24.5, 28 Detroit 24 16.8
57% 5 Pittsburgh 17 14.2, 7 Tampa Bay 10 13.2
44% 6 Philadelphia 10 17.2, 8 New York Giants 9 18.2
41% 17 San Diego 27 27.4, 10 Denver 10 29.3
40% 22 Chicago 24 12.4, 23 Cincinnati 0 14.0
30% 14 New England 38 20.7, 9 Indianapolis 17 27.9
29% 27 Buffalo 13 18.0, 21 Jacksonville 10 25.5
26% 29 Arizona 24 16.9, 18 Kansas City 16 25.5
23% 31 Washington 17 10.6, 24 Carolina 14 20.1
22% 20 Minnesota 35 19.4, 1 Green Bay 13 32.2
18% 30 Atlanta 20 15.6, 11 New Orleans 13 33.3
16% 25 Cleveland 24 7.2, 2 Baltimore 14 23.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.43 2 0.72 5 0.26 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 13 3 0.33
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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