prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 5 Baltimore 18 20.5, 22 Jacksonville 17 9.2
74% 3 Pittsburgh 34 24.9, 18 Tennessee 7 16.2
72% 12 San Diego 27 27.4, 23 Buffalo 24 19.0
67% 26 Dallas 17 23.4, 30 Arizona 3 17.6
63% 14 Chicago 37 20.2, 20 San Francisco 31 16.7
62% 1 Oakland 20 22.0, 6 Philadelphia 10 18.5
61% 15 Indianapolis 35 25.9, 25 Kansas City 28 23.1
61% 8 Tampa Bay 41 22.8, 9 Minnesota 14 19.8
58% 21 New York Jets 13 19.8, 28 Carolina 12 18.5
46% 27 Cincinnati 31 17.3, 29 Detroit 27 17.9
40% 19 Denver 31 20.1, 10 New England 20 22.3
39% 13 Miami 24 17.8, 11 Seattle 20 20.5
19% 16 New Orleans 34 17.2, 2 St. Louis 31 33.0
15% 31 Washington 35 7.3, 7 New York Giants 21 22.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.58 6 1.33 3 1.33 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 9 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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