prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 1 St. Louis 48 34.9, 29 Carolina 14 10.5
84% 4 Tampa Bay 20 29.9, 30 Detroit 17 12.9
78% 18 New York Giants 17 22.0, 31 Arizona 10 10.5
76% 15 Jacksonville 30 22.8, 27 Cincinnati 13 13.4
76% 3 Pittsburgh 15 23.3, 21 Cleveland 12 13.2
75% 10 New England 21 23.6, 25 Buffalo 11 15.1
71% 5 Philadelphia 48 22.6, 11 Minnesota 17 15.8
67% 6 Baltimore 16 22.6, 19 Tennessee 10 17.1
63% 14 New York Jets 27 22.0, 20 Kansas City 7 18.1
62% 7 Green Bay 20 23.7, 13 Chicago 12 20.2
61% 12 Denver 26 29.6, 17 San Diego 16 26.6
44% 28 Atlanta 20 20.0, 23 Dallas 13 21.2
43% 8 Miami 27 23.5, 9 Indianapolis 24 25.0
38% 24 San Francisco 28 22.1, 16 New Orleans 27 25.5
19% 26 Seattle 34 17.7, 2 Oakland 27 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.00 5 1.27 5 1.33 2 0.61 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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