prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 2 Philadelphia 36 26.3, 24 Dallas 3 10.9
79% 4 Oakland 34 32.5, 16 San Diego 24 19.3
72% 1 St. Louis 24 27.6, 12 New England 17 19.7
67% 5 Pittsburgh 20 20.7, 11 Jacksonville 7 15.7
63% 21 San Francisco 25 25.1, 30 Carolina 22 20.9
63% 15 Tennessee 20 22.7, 28 Cincinnati 7 18.9
58% 20 Minnesota 28 24.7, 18 New York Giants 16 23.1
58% 19 Seattle 23 21.8, 26 Buffalo 20 20.4
40% 31 Arizona 45 18.2, 29 Detroit 38 20.3
38% 17 New Orleans 34 23.1, 10 Indianapolis 20 26.6
33% 13 New York Jets 24 15.6, 8 Miami 0 20.5
23% 25 Washington 17 19.9, 9 Denver 10 31.9
23% 14 Chicago 27 12.1, 7 Tampa Bay 24 22.0
19% 23 Cleveland 27 8.4, 3 Baltimore 17 23.7
16% 27 Atlanta 23 14.2, 6 Green Bay 20 30.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.14 5 0.93 4 0.66 3 0.40 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 8 0.76
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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