prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 15 Cleveland 18 21.2, 28 Cincinnati 0 9.2
77% 8 Green Bay 29 29.6, 27 Detroit 27 19.0
72% 17 Denver 26 22.8, 29 Dallas 24 15.3
72% 4 Oakland 28 26.1, 18 New York Giants 10 18.6
68% 22 Miami 34 18.7, 26 Buffalo 27 13.3
60% 24 Atlanta 10 20.8, 31 Carolina 7 18.5
60% 6 Baltimore 24 17.7, 12 Jacksonville 21 16.0
60% 5 Pittsburgh 34 18.2, 11 Tennessee 24 16.4
55% 10 Chicago 13 25.1, 21 Minnesota 6 24.1
52% 14 New England 34 18.4, 9 New Orleans 17 18.0
38% 25 Kansas City 19 19.7, 13 Seattle 7 23.3
36% 20 San Francisco 40 30.5, 16 Indianapolis 21 35.5
22% 30 Arizona 20 19.0, 19 San Diego 17 31.1
22% 7 Tampa Bay 24 17.8, 2 St. Louis 17 29.9
14% 23 Washington 13 6.1, 1 Philadelphia 3 25.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.77 4 0.78 6 0.88 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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