prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 6 Tampa Bay 16 24.5, 31 Cincinnati 13 7.9
82% 15 New Orleans 27 25.8, 30 Carolina 23 11.5
79% 2 Pittsburgh 21 27.9, 21 Minnesota 16 14.9
78% 5 Baltimore 39 29.4, 24 Indianapolis 27 17.8
77% 12 Chicago 13 27.8, 27 Detroit 10 16.6
77% 8 San Francisco 35 32.1, 26 Buffalo 0 20.6
75% 3 St. Louis 35 28.2, 22 Atlanta 6 19.0
69% 7 Philadelphia 23 18.1, 25 Kansas City 10 11.8
62% 18 Seattle 13 24.9, 23 San Diego 10 21.3
56% 19 Miami 21 21.3, 14 Denver 10 20.2
48% 9 Green Bay 28 24.8, 13 Jacksonville 21 25.3
37% 10 New England 17 16.4, 4 New York Jets 16 20.3
35% 17 Tennessee 31 16.2, 11 Cleveland 15 21.1
20% 29 Dallas 20 10.2, 16 Washington 14 22.3
12% 28 Arizona 34 15.0, 1 Oakland 31 36.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.93 4 0.77 6 1.07 3 0.78 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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