prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 9 New England 12 30.9, 31 Buffalo 9 15.6
82% 11 New York Jets 15 20.6, 29 Cincinnati 14 7.5
77% 8 Philadelphia 20 19.7, 25 Washington 6 10.1
72% 5 Oakland 13 28.9, 19 San Diego 6 20.9
68% 20 New York Giants 17 22.7, 28 Arizona 13 16.7
67% 1 St. Louis 34 25.9, 12 New Orleans 21 19.9
64% 27 Indianapolis 41 26.9, 30 Atlanta 27 21.9
61% 14 Kansas City 26 20.2, 13 Denver 23 17.7
56% 22 Seattle 29 17.4, 21 Dallas 3 16.4
56% 16 Jacksonville 15 20.0, 23 Cleveland 10 18.9
44% 24 Detroit 27 24.5, 18 Minnesota 24 25.8
42% 10 San Francisco 21 18.3, 4 Miami 0 19.9
36% 15 Tennessee 26 21.3, 6 Green Bay 20 26.2
33% 3 Pittsburgh 26 13.5, 2 Baltimore 21 18.4
32% 17 Chicago 27 10.0, 7 Tampa Bay 3 15.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.88 7 0.87 2 1.34 2 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 10 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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