prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 Baltimore 16 23.9, 29 Cincinnati 0 6.4
83% 3 Pittsburgh 47 27.6, 23 Detroit 14 11.7
82% 1 St. Louis 38 29.2, 27 Carolina 32 15.0
81% 6 Green Bay 30 26.0, 24 Cleveland 7 12.3
79% 4 Chicago 20 19.1, 26 Washington 15 7.7
64% 18 Kansas City 20 21.0, 20 San Diego 17 17.0
62% 30 Atlanta 33 21.1, 31 Buffalo 30 18.0
62% 25 Arizona 17 20.2, 28 Dallas 10 17.1
62% 17 New York Giants 27 15.7, 19 Seattle 24 13.1
53% 14 New York Jets 29 27.4, 22 Indianapolis 28 26.7
50% 11 Jacksonville 33 22.6, 16 Minnesota 3 22.6
49% 9 New England 20 15.6, 8 Miami 13 15.7
48% 10 San Francisco 13 17.5, 7 Philadelphia 3 17.8
44% 21 Tampa Bay 48 17.1, 12 New Orleans 21 18.0
24% 13 Tennessee 13 19.3, 5 Oakland 10 29.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.76 4 1.61 2 0.64 4 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 11 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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