prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 12 Miami 21 23.6, 30 Atlanta 14 9.5
80% 6 Green Bay 24 30.5, 23 Minnesota 13 16.5
78% 8 Chicago 24 26.3, 29 Detroit 0 14.4
77% 2 St. Louis 42 43.0, 17 Indianapolis 17 30.8
64% 16 Philadelphia 24 14.2, 20 New York Giants 21 10.6
59% 7 Tampa Bay 22 18.6, 5 Baltimore 10 17.0
54% 15 Seattle 25 19.4, 21 San Diego 22 18.8
38% 14 Denver 23 19.6, 9 Oakland 17 23.1
33% 28 Arizona 30 17.6, 22 Carolina 7 23.3
25% 31 Washington 40 16.2, 18 New Orleans 10 25.3
24% 26 Buffalo 14 17.3, 13 New York Jets 9 27.7
21% 27 Dallas 27 10.4, 4 San Francisco 21 22.8
21% 24 Cleveland 41 10.9, 11 Tennessee 38 22.8
21% 19 Kansas City 30 12.0, 3 Jacksonville 26 23.8
16% 25 Cincinnati 26 8.3, 1 Pittsburgh 23 24.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.77 3 0.52 7 0.37 3 0.81 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 7 0.64
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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