prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
62% 10 Oakland 38 20.2, 11 New York Jets 24 16.9
61% 8 Philadelphia 31 19.5, 9 Tampa Bay 9 16.8
60% 6 Baltimore 20 12.8, 12 Miami 3 11.1
52% 7 Green Bay 25 21.5, 3 San Francisco 15 21.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.80 2 1.62 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 4 1.70
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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