prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 3 Philadelphia 35 31.9, 31 Houston 17 3.4
90% 6 Tampa Bay 35 26.8, 32 Cincinnati 7 4.8
83% 4 Oakland 52 35.1, 21 Tennessee 25 17.3
82% 13 Jacksonville 28 28.9, 29 New York Jets 3 13.9
63% 25 Seattle 48 23.2, 26 Minnesota 23 19.3
52% 18 Pittsburgh 16 21.6, 14 Cleveland 13 21.3
39% 20 Green Bay 17 19.2, 10 Carolina 14 22.2
37% 23 Buffalo 33 24.6, 17 Chicago 27 28.7
30% 22 Arizona 21 14.3, 9 New York Giants 7 20.8
27% 12 San Diego 21 17.3, 2 New England 14 26.9
22% 28 Dallas 13 16.5, 15 St. Louis 10 28.9
19% 27 Baltimore 34 6.8, 8 Denver 23 17.7
15% 30 Detroit 26 20.5, 7 New Orleans 21 37.8
13% 19 Kansas City 48 14.8, 1 Miami 30 36.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.93 4 0.39 2 0.00 5 0.48 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 6 0.57
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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