prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 2 Tampa Bay 17 28.2, 20 Cleveland 3 12.9
81% 11 Pittsburgh 34 25.0, 32 Cincinnati 7 10.4
70% 21 Buffalo 31 29.5, 31 Houston 24 22.6
67% 7 San Francisco 28 18.8, 16 Seattle 21 13.7
64% 19 New York Giants 17 16.9, 22 Atlanta 10 13.1
63% 4 Miami 24 24.5, 10 Denver 22 20.6
59% 15 Indianapolis 22 21.0, 13 Baltimore 20 19.2
51% 9 San Diego 35 26.0, 8 Kansas City 34 25.7
49% 26 Dallas 14 13.2, 24 Carolina 13 13.4
43% 30 Minnesota 31 28.9, 27 Detroit 24 30.3
40% 18 New Orleans 43 20.9, 17 Washington 27 23.0
25% 12 Green Bay 28 20.7, 5 New England 10 29.9
14% 29 Tennessee 23 16.1, 6 Jacksonville 14 34.6
14% 25 St. Louis 28 20.6, 1 Oakland 13 38.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.72 4 1.52 1 0.00 4 0.60 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.84
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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