prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 2 Tampa Bay 38 26.2, 27 Minnesota 24 7.0
85% 1 Philadelphia 19 25.9, 25 Chicago 13 8.2
74% 3 Green Bay 24 23.6, 10 Miami 10 15.5
72% 5 Pittsburgh 23 25.6, 19 Cleveland 20 17.9
63% 9 St. Louis 27 25.3, 18 Arizona 14 21.0
59% 16 Atlanta 20 18.0, 13 Baltimore 17 16.5
58% 26 Detroit 9 18.4, 24 Dallas 7 17.1
51% 20 New York Giants 24 14.7, 17 Jacksonville 17 14.6
41% 14 New England 38 22.6, 15 Buffalo 7 24.4
37% 29 Washington 14 16.7, 22 Seattle 3 20.6
33% 28 Tennessee 23 24.9, 21 Indianapolis 15 31.4
30% 12 San Francisco 23 20.3, 7 Oakland 20 27.6
21% 32 Cincinnati 38 12.0, 23 Houston 3 23.1
12% 30 New York Jets 44 8.8, 4 San Diego 13 29.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.32 3 0.52 4 0.68 3 0.77 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 14 8 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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