prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 2 Green Bay 40 34.7, 29 Detroit 14 11.1
80% 3 New England 33 23.3, 28 Chicago 30 10.1
77% 10 New Orleans 34 30.1, 31 Carolina 24 19.6
76% 24 Tennessee 17 28.6, 32 Houston 10 17.9
75% 18 Baltimore 38 20.2, 30 Cincinnati 27 11.9
64% 17 Jacksonville 26 20.2, 20 Washington 7 16.2
64% 11 New York Giants 27 22.0, 22 Minnesota 20 17.8
63% 9 Pittsburgh 34 23.2, 12 Atlanta 34 19.4
59% 15 New York Jets 13 18.7, 14 Miami 10 17.1
57% 8 San Francisco 17 26.2, 6 Kansas City 13 24.8
38% 25 Seattle 27 17.1, 21 Arizona 6 20.5
34% 13 Oakland 34 21.4, 4 Denver 10 26.8
29% 16 San Diego 28 17.9, 5 St. Louis 24 25.8
10% 27 Indianapolis 35 7.3, 1 Philadelphia 13 32.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.72 5 0.63 5 1.06 1 1.12 1 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.9 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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