2002 Week 12 (24-25 Nov) Results for the National Football League

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 81%   1 Oakland                 41 33.5,    26 Arizona                 20 17.9
 78%  14 Pittsburgh              29 28.4,    29 Cincinnati              21 16.2
 78%   3 New England             24 32.2,    22 Minnesota               17 20.2
 77%  20 Chicago                 20 26.0,    30 Detroit                 17 15.2
 76%   8 New York Jets           31 26.3,    24 Buffalo                 13 16.6
 69%  15 Atlanta                 41 22.8,    28 Carolina                 0 16.6
 61%   4 Tampa Bay               21 20.7,     6 Green Bay                7 17.9
 59%  12 Miami                   30 18.5,    11 San Diego                3 17.1
 59%   2 Philadelphia            38 19.1,     9 San Francisco           17 17.5
 58%   5 Indianapolis            23 21.3,    13 Denver                  20 19.9

 39%  25 Baltimore               13 20.4,    19 Tennessee               12 23.2
 37%  23 Seattle                 39 16.8,    10 Kansas City             32 20.3
 36%  21 Cleveland               24 27.9,    17 New Orleans             15 32.7
 24%  27 Washington              20 18.7,     7 St. Louis               17 28.4
 21%  32 Dallas                  21  8.0,    18 Jacksonville            19 19.7
 20%  31 Houston                 16 10.7,    16 New York Giants         14 23.8

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
                3 1.71   5 0.63   6 0.86   2 0.62   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  16  10  11.2 0.89

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: predicted scores are not released until after game time

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