prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 4 Philadelphia 34 30.9, 29 Washington 21 11.1
86% 2 Tampa Bay 23 26.4, 30 Detroit 20 8.4
81% 11 Jacksonville 29 32.8, 32 Cincinnati 15 17.0
79% 21 St. Louis 30 27.8, 31 Arizona 28 15.0
64% 22 New York Giants 37 21.0, 26 Dallas 7 17.0
64% 20 Pittsburgh 30 21.7, 27 Carolina 14 17.1
63% 15 Buffalo 20 24.2, 23 San Diego 13 19.9
49% 10 Green Bay 20 25.2, 16 San Francisco 14 25.3
42% 14 Chicago 20 18.5, 6 New York Jets 13 19.9
41% 17 Tennessee 24 20.7, 7 New England 7 22.6
38% 19 Indianapolis 28 17.4, 12 Cleveland 23 20.4
38% 5 Miami 23 19.7, 3 Oakland 17 23.2
37% 28 Baltimore 23 15.3, 25 Houston 19 19.0
36% 18 Seattle 30 19.3, 9 Atlanta 24 23.7
30% 24 Minnesota 32 25.5, 8 New Orleans 31 33.0
23% 13 Denver 31 20.3, 1 Kansas City 24 31.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.00 7 0.68 3 0.44 3 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.9 0.64
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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