prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 87% 4 Philadelphia 34 30.9, 29 Washington 21 11.1 86% 2 Tampa Bay 23 26.4, 30 Detroit 20 8.4 81% 11 Jacksonville 29 32.8, 32 Cincinnati 15 17.0 79% 21 St. Louis 30 27.8, 31 Arizona 28 15.0 64% 22 New York Giants 37 21.0, 26 Dallas 7 17.0 64% 20 Pittsburgh 30 21.7, 27 Carolina 14 17.1 63% 15 Buffalo 20 24.2, 23 San Diego 13 19.9 49% 10 Green Bay 20 25.2, 16 San Francisco 14 25.3 42% 14 Chicago 20 18.5, 6 New York Jets 13 19.9 41% 17 Tennessee 24 20.7, 7 New England 7 22.6 38% 19 Indianapolis 28 17.4, 12 Cleveland 23 20.4 38% 5 Miami 23 19.7, 3 Oakland 17 23.2 37% 28 Baltimore 23 15.3, 25 Houston 19 19.0 36% 18 Seattle 30 19.3, 9 Atlanta 24 23.7 30% 24 Minnesota 32 25.5, 8 New Orleans 31 33.0 23% 13 Denver 31 20.3, 1 Kansas City 24 31.6 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 3 0.00 7 0.68 3 0.44 3 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.9 0.64 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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