prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 2 Philadelphia 27 32.1, 31 Dallas 3 11.8
82% 1 Kansas City 24 30.2, 21 San Diego 22 15.3
75% 4 Oakland 28 27.6, 11 Denver 16 18.3
73% 22 Atlanta 36 28.2, 30 Detroit 15 19.5
72% 9 Seattle 30 27.4, 24 St. Louis 10 19.1
70% 12 San Francisco 17 26.7, 29 Arizona 14 19.6
65% 6 Green Bay 10 25.2, 13 Buffalo 0 20.0
58% 19 Cleveland 14 20.7, 27 Baltimore 13 19.2
57% 7 New York Giants 44 21.8, 16 Indianapolis 27 20.6
48% 28 Washington 26 18.9, 25 Houston 10 19.3
44% 26 Carolina 24 18.0, 17 Chicago 14 19.0
41% 8 Tennessee 28 20.8, 10 Jacksonville 10 22.6
40% 15 New York Jets 30 16.7, 14 New England 17 18.8
28% 23 Minnesota 20 18.4, 5 Miami 17 26.1
24% 32 Cincinnati 20 24.5, 18 New Orleans 13 35.1
21% 20 Pittsburgh 17 13.9, 3 Tampa Bay 7 25.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.71 2 0.80 7 0.77 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.9 0.82
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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