prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 5 Pittsburgh 36 26.5, 22 Cleveland 33 16.6
74% 6 New York Jets 41 27.9, 16 Indianapolis 0 18.9
41% 13 Atlanta 27 19.1, 14 Green Bay 7 20.9
39% 15 San Francisco 39 18.0, 7 New York Giants 38 20.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 1 0.00 2 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 2 2.7 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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