prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 3 Tampa Bay 31 23.2, 16 San Francisco 6 11.9
71% 2 Philadelphia 20 22.3, 10 Atlanta 6 15.5
67% 5 Tennessee 34 23.3, 12 Pittsburgh 31 17.4
64% 1 Oakland 30 22.5, 4 New York Jets 10 18.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 2 1.52 2 1.33 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 4 2.8 1.42
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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