20 Jan 2004: Average model rankings (NFL)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  1   2 14.9  5.3 Kansas City               17  3   0 12.6  5.8 New York Jets           
  2  1   1 14.0  5.8 Green Bay                 18  2   0 12.1  6.0 Dallas                  
  3  3   1 13.6  6.0 Philadelphia              19  4   0 12.9  5.3 Oakland                 
  4  1   1 13.4  6.2 New England               20  1   0 12.2  5.8 Buffalo                 
  5  2   1 14.6  5.2 Indianapolis              21  1   0 12.5  5.5 Pittsburgh              
  6  1   1 14.2  5.4 Tennessee                 22  1   0 12.0  5.7 Chicago                 
  7  4   1 12.3  6.7 Tampa Bay                 23  1   0 12.9  4.9 Washington              
  8  3   1 12.9  6.2 Miami                     24  1   0 11.9  5.6 Cleveland               
  9  2   1 13.6  5.7 Denver                    25  1   0 12.1  5.4 Jacksonville            
 10  5   1 14.1  5.3 St. Louis                 26  1   0 12.8  4.8 Atlanta                 
 11  2   1 13.2  5.9 Baltimore                 27  4   0 12.8  4.7 Cincinnati              
 12  3   0 14.1  5.0 Minnesota                 28  1   0 12.7  4.7 San Diego               
 13  2   0 13.6  5.2 San Francisco             29  3   0 12.2  4.9 Detroit                 
 14  2   0 13.0  5.7 Carolina                  30  2   0 12.0  5.0 New York Giants         
 15  2   0 13.5  5.2 Seattle                   31  1  -1 11.9  4.7 Houston                 
 16  2   0 13.4  5.2 New Orleans               32  0  -2 11.3  4.5 Arizona                 

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net