prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 5 Denver 30 30.3, 31 Cincinnati 10 15.0
75% 4 Kansas City 27 27.8, 13 San Diego 14 18.3
73% 12 Pittsburgh 34 26.4, 25 Baltimore 15 18.2
72% 10 San Francisco 49 24.3, 22 Chicago 7 16.9
67% 11 Atlanta 27 21.9, 29 Dallas 13 16.3
63% 17 Seattle 27 26.4, 18 New Orleans 10 22.3
63% 14 New York Giants 23 22.5, 15 St. Louis 13 18.9
55% 30 Detroit 42 22.0, 28 Arizona 24 21.0
44% 2 Tampa Bay 17 16.2, 3 Philadelphia 0 17.1
43% 26 Carolina 24 17.3, 16 Jacksonville 23 18.5
41% 19 Buffalo 31 21.9, 8 New England 0 23.6
36% 27 Washington 16 18.6, 7 New York Jets 13 23.2
36% 24 Indianapolis 9 19.2, 23 Cleveland 6 23.7
27% 20 Tennessee 25 21.1, 1 Oakland 20 30.4
26% 21 Minnesota 30 19.6, 9 Green Bay 25 28.2
12% 32 Houston 21 5.7, 6 Miami 20 31.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 5 0.94 5 0.82 2 0.59 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.8 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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