prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 13 Minnesota 24 37.8, 31 Chicago 13 16.5
78% 12 Oakland 23 31.8, 28 Cincinnati 20 11.6
78% 9 Seattle 38 34.2, 30 Arizona 0 14.1
75% 2 Buffalo 38 29.5, 20 Jacksonville 17 10.6
63% 26 Baltimore 33 20.8, 29 Cleveland 13 12.9
62% 8 Denver 37 20.6, 21 San Diego 13 14.4
61% 4 Indianapolis 33 21.1, 7 Tennessee 7 16.0
59% 5 Kansas City 41 27.2, 6 Pittsburgh 20 24.2
48% 25 New Orleans 31 21.6, 19 Houston 10 22.3
48% 22 Green Bay 31 28.5, 15 Detroit 6 29.0
39% 23 Miami 21 15.5, 17 New York Jets 10 20.6
38% 14 Washington 33 15.8, 11 Atlanta 31 21.9
37% 32 New England 31 3.8, 24 Philadelphia 10 13.8
27% 16 St. Louis 27 18.4, 3 San Francisco 24 32.7
25% 27 Dallas 35 6.5, 10 New York Giants 32 23.8
21% 18 Carolina 12 3.1, 1 Tampa Bay 9 29.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.61 6 0.81 7 0.74 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 10.7 0.75
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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