prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
88% 2 Denver 20 35.4, 25 Detroit 16 13.9
80% 11 Green Bay 38 27.6, 32 Chicago 23 12.5
79% 18 St. Louis 37 29.7, 30 Arizona 13 16.7
78% 17 Oakland 34 28.4, 29 San Diego 31 16.2
74% 3 Kansas City 17 29.5, 16 Baltimore 10 20.8
68% 6 Indianapolis 55 22.3, 22 New Orleans 21 16.3
57% 9 Minnesota 35 24.2, 8 San Francisco 7 22.8
51% 20 Carolina 23 22.7, 14 Atlanta 3 22.4
46% 31 Houston 24 21.4, 28 Jacksonville 20 22.1
42% 12 Washington 20 20.8, 7 New England 17 22.3
39% 19 Tennessee 30 20.2, 15 Pittsburgh 13 23.3
32% 26 Cincinnati 21 12.1, 24 Cleveland 14 17.4
29% 27 Dallas 17 15.7, 21 New York Jets 6 22.5
22% 23 Philadelphia 23 8.0, 5 Buffalo 13 22.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.91 3 0.51 5 0.79 2 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.7 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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