prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 7 Buffalo 22 26.9, 26 Cincinnati 16 13.8
78% 8 Carolina 19 27.5, 28 New Orleans 13 15.6
77% 22 Dallas 24 25.8, 32 Arizona 7 14.3
74% 4 Minnesota 39 30.3, 20 Atlanta 26 21.5
69% 19 San Francisco 24 24.6, 24 Detroit 17 17.7
63% 11 Philadelphia 27 20.0, 17 Washington 25 15.7
60% 10 New England 38 20.1, 9 Tennessee 30 18.0
59% 29 Jacksonville 27 22.5, 27 San Diego 21 20.6
57% 3 Kansas City 24 23.7, 2 Denver 23 22.3
40% 12 Miami 23 17.3, 14 New York Giants 10 19.4
39% 15 Green Bay 35 19.0, 6 Seattle 13 21.6
36% 25 Cleveland 33 16.1, 21 Pittsburgh 13 20.2
22% 31 Chicago 24 19.6, 13 Oakland 21 32.1
22% 5 Indianapolis 38 8.7, 1 Tampa Bay 35 18.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.27 4 0.78 6 0.86 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.6 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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