prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
82% 17 San Francisco 50 27.3, 32 Arizona 14 13.0
77% 3 Philadelphia 36 22.6, 18 Dallas 10 12.5
76% 10 Baltimore 31 26.9, 27 Cincinnati 13 16.6
75% 7 Green Bay 34 22.4, 20 Chicago 21 14.1
71% 25 Jacksonville 27 22.9, 31 Houston 0 16.0
70% 2 St. Louis 26 25.6, 26 Cleveland 20 18.7
62% 9 Tampa Bay 14 20.4, 22 New Orleans 7 17.1
62% 4 New England 12 19.9, 6 Miami 0 17.0
58% 15 Buffalo 17 18.6, 14 New York Jets 6 17.3
46% 28 San Diego 14 20.5, 30 Detroit 7 21.3
43% 16 Minnesota 34 27.6, 13 Seattle 7 29.0
41% 29 Atlanta 20 20.0, 21 Carolina 14 21.6
40% 5 Indianapolis 29 25.7, 8 Tennessee 27 28.1
39% 23 Washington 20 18.4, 19 New York Giants 7 21.3
39% 11 Denver 45 22.8, 1 Kansas City 27 25.5
38% 24 Pittsburgh 27 19.3, 12 Oakland 7 22.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.44 6 0.54 5 1.35 1 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 9 10.5 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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