prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 6 Tampa Bay 16 25.7, 31 Houston 3 6.7
84% 4 Kansas City 45 33.1, 30 Detroit 17 16.4
79% 8 Indianapolis 38 33.1, 28 Atlanta 7 20.3
79% 3 Denver 23 26.3, 26 Cleveland 20 13.2
77% 5 New England 27 22.9, 23 Jacksonville 13 12.8
76% 2 St. Louis 27 30.7, 15 Seattle 22 20.2
75% 22 Carolina 20 24.5, 32 Arizona 17 15.5
67% 9 Tennessee 28 22.8, 14 Buffalo 26 17.0
66% 11 Green Bay 38 24.3, 27 San Diego 21 19.0
64% 18 New Orleans 45 22.2, 25 New York Giants 7 17.5
62% 17 New York Jets 6 20.3, 19 Pittsburgh 0 17.2
61% 1 Philadelphia 34 19.7, 10 Miami 27 17.2
50% 20 Chicago 13 22.5, 13 Minnesota 10 22.5
41% 16 Oakland 20 20.8, 7 Baltimore 12 22.6
37% 24 Dallas 27 17.0, 21 Washington 0 21.0
32% 29 Cincinnati 41 19.6, 12 San Francisco 38 26.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.91 7 1.11 5 1.29 2 1.17 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 13 11.2 1.16
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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