prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 1 Green Bay 33 29.2, 16 Seattle 27 17.3
62% 9 Indianapolis 41 26.3, 10 Denver 10 22.9
60% 17 Carolina 29 18.3, 15 Dallas 10 16.1
47% 5 Tennessee 20 22.3, 8 Baltimore 17 22.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 2 1.64 1 1.29 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 3 2.5 1.19
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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