prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
54% 4 New England 24 22.5, 2 Indianapolis 14 21.8
30% 10 Carolina 14 17.5, 1 Philadelphia 3 24.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.86 0 0.00 1 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 2 1 1.2 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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