prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 10 St. Louis 17 34.2, 32 Arizona 10 13.8
73% 3 Philadelphia 31 27.7, 29 New York Giants 17 12.8
63% 17 New York Jets 31 24.1, 27 Cincinnati 24 16.8
61% 12 Minnesota 35 22.6, 18 Dallas 17 17.9
59% 4 New England 27 23.9, 5 Indianapolis 24 20.8
58% 2 Green Bay 24 22.1, 14 Carolina 14 19.4
54% 21 Pittsburgh 24 19.9, 19 Oakland 21 18.7
52% 28 San Diego 27 21.6, 31 Houston 10 20.8
47% 8 Denver 34 24.7, 1 Kansas City 24 25.5
46% 6 Tennessee 17 19.6, 9 Miami 7 20.9
44% 15 Seattle 21 22.7, 16 New Orleans 7 24.5
41% 24 Cleveland 20 15.7, 11 Baltimore 3 19.4
40% 25 Jacksonville 13 15.0, 20 Buffalo 10 19.5
39% 30 Detroit 20 15.6, 22 Chicago 16 20.8
39% 23 Washington 16 14.8, 7 Tampa Bay 10 20.0
34% 26 Atlanta 21 18.8, 13 San Francisco 19 27.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
8 0.90 6 0.54 2 1.32 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 8 9.7 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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