prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
76% 19 Detroit 28 28.0, 32 Houston 16 10.4
71% 5 New England 23 24.2, 30 Arizona 12 10.5
61% 22 Oakland 13 21.1, 27 Buffalo 10 16.1
61% 11 Atlanta 34 21.9, 21 St. Louis 17 16.9
61% 4 Seattle 10 15.1, 12 Tampa Bay 6 9.7
56% 8 Philadelphia 27 27.9, 6 Minnesota 16 26.2
53% 29 New Orleans 30 18.5, 24 San Francisco 27 17.5
47% 23 Cincinnati 16 17.5, 17 Miami 13 18.7
41% 28 Baltimore 30 15.8, 18 Pittsburgh 13 19.1
41% 16 New York Jets 34 19.0, 13 San Diego 28 22.0
40% 26 New York Giants 20 19.1, 15 Washington 14 23.0
39% 14 Jacksonville 7 17.2, 3 Denver 6 21.8
35% 25 Dallas 19 8.9, 7 Cleveland 12 18.7
35% 20 Carolina 28 20.4, 10 Kansas City 17 28.3
35% 9 Indianapolis 31 18.6, 1 Tennessee 17 27.0
21% 31 Chicago 21 8.5, 2 Green Bay 10 31.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 0.71 8 0.60 3 0.89 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.0 0.70
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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