prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 9 New York Jets 22 29.7, 30 San Francisco 14 17.1
79% 4 Philadelphia 30 24.9, 18 Carolina 8 13.1
72% 5 Denver 31 25.8, 21 Oakland 3 18.1
66% 12 Pittsburgh 34 19.7, 31 Dallas 20 14.8
65% 23 Cleveland 34 22.9, 28 Cincinnati 17 18.1
61% 15 Minnesota 38 30.1, 27 New Orleans 31 27.5
61% 13 St. Louis 28 19.0, 11 Tampa Bay 21 16.6
60% 17 Jacksonville 22 21.0, 14 Kansas City 16 19.0
60% 3 New England 30 18.8, 2 Seattle 20 16.7
56% 32 Buffalo 20 11.9, 29 Miami 13 11.0
41% 19 Washington 13 16.6, 25 Chicago 10 18.1
39% 26 Green Bay 38 18.1, 22 Detroit 10 21.0
39% 16 Atlanta 21 20.4, 6 San Diego 20 23.5
23% 24 Houston 20 16.6, 7 Tennessee 10 28.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 1.28 6 1.07 4 0.98 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.2 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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