prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 8 Baltimore 20 20.0, 26 Buffalo 6 9.3
78% 2 New England 13 28.4, 9 New York Jets 7 16.5
77% 3 Philadelphia 34 25.0, 18 Cleveland 31 14.8
67% 21 Green Bay 41 23.3, 30 Dallas 20 17.6
67% 17 Tampa Bay 19 15.0, 25 Chicago 7 9.8
63% 6 San Diego 17 23.2, 20 Carolina 6 19.4
60% 16 Kansas City 56 24.9, 14 Atlanta 10 22.3
59% 11 Minnesota 20 28.5, 10 Tennessee 3 26.5
39% 29 New Orleans 31 22.7, 27 Oakland 26 25.5
37% 31 Miami 31 17.0, 13 St. Louis 14 21.0
30% 19 Arizona 25 13.3, 5 Seattle 17 19.7
24% 24 Detroit 28 13.9, 7 New York Giants 13 22.7
19% 32 Cincinnati 23 15.4, 4 Denver 10 30.4
18% 15 Jacksonville 27 15.5, 1 Indianapolis 24 30.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.68 6 1.05 5 0.79 2 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 8 9.8 0.81
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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