prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
77% 8 San Diego 42 29.3, 27 Oakland 14 18.3
75% 3 Philadelphia 15 23.6, 7 Baltimore 10 15.0
73% 10 New York Jets 41 19.9, 19 Miami 14 12.8
72% 15 Tennessee 27 25.3, 30 Cincinnati 20 17.3
69% 12 Seattle 23 21.1, 23 Carolina 17 14.9
67% 28 Chicago 23 20.8, 31 San Francisco 13 15.8
56% 14 Green Bay 28 22.2, 21 Washington 14 21.1
44% 29 Buffalo 38 14.3, 18 Arizona 14 15.2
40% 24 Houston 20 16.4, 11 Jacksonville 6 18.5
38% 32 Dallas 31 18.7, 22 Detroit 21 22.3
38% 6 Kansas City 45 31.2, 2 Indianapolis 35 34.6
35% 9 Pittsburgh 34 18.7, 1 New England 20 24.0
33% 13 New York Giants 34 18.6, 5 Minnesota 13 24.6
20% 26 Atlanta 41 11.7, 4 Denver 28 24.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 0.58 6 0.51 5 1.06 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.4 0.74
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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