prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
79% 1 Indianapolis 49 33.8, 22 Houston 14 20.4
78% 2 New England 29 25.6, 21 Buffalo 6 14.1
77% 7 Philadelphia 49 26.6, 32 Dallas 21 16.1
75% 14 Jacksonville 23 20.4, 28 Detroit 17 12.0
68% 4 Pittsburgh 24 24.5, 25 Cleveland 10 18.2
59% 20 Carolina 37 21.5, 30 San Francisco 27 19.6
59% 13 Green Bay 34 29.1, 11 Minnesota 31 27.2
48% 18 Cincinnati 17 19.1, 26 Washington 10 19.5
44% 23 Atlanta 24 16.7, 12 Tampa Bay 14 17.8
43% 6 Baltimore 20 17.6, 10 New York Jets 17 18.8
41% 17 St. Louis 23 26.0, 9 Seattle 12 28.0
39% 27 Arizona 17 18.4, 15 New York Giants 14 21.1
36% 19 Chicago 19 15.1, 16 Tennessee 17 19.0
24% 31 New Orleans 27 27.0, 5 Kansas City 20 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 0.58 3 0.52 5 1.04 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.2 0.76
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net