prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 5 Pittsburgh 16 24.6, 28 Washington 7 10.7
80% 1 Indianapolis 41 34.5, 25 Detroit 9 20.2
73% 3 Philadelphia 27 23.7, 22 New York Giants 6 16.0
72% 11 New York Jets 13 23.6, 30 Arizona 3 16.2
70% 12 Green Bay 45 30.5, 19 St. Louis 17 23.2
68% 17 Atlanta 24 25.9, 24 New Orleans 21 19.4
65% 20 Miami 24 24.0, 31 San Francisco 17 19.0
64% 2 New England 24 21.2, 4 Baltimore 3 16.9
63% 21 Cincinnati 58 20.4, 27 Cleveland 48 16.5
61% 15 Minnesota 27 22.4, 16 Jacksonville 16 19.3
56% 14 Carolina 21 18.5, 10 Tampa Bay 14 17.5
45% 6 San Diego 34 28.9, 8 Kansas City 31 29.9
37% 32 Dallas 21 17.7, 23 Chicago 7 21.5
36% 26 Houston 31 18.2, 13 Tennessee 21 22.4
31% 18 Buffalo 38 16.5, 9 Seattle 9 23.0
19% 29 Oakland 25 15.7, 7 Denver 24 29.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 9 1.02 2 1.38 3 0.83 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.8 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net