prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 2 New England 42 29.8, 27 Cleveland 15 14.8
81% 1 Indianapolis 51 34.3, 15 Tennessee 24 19.2
78% 6 New York Jets 29 24.8, 22 Houston 7 13.9
73% 24 St. Louis 16 32.3, 32 San Francisco 6 24.0
72% 3 Philadelphia 47 26.8, 7 Green Bay 17 18.9
67% 4 Pittsburgh 17 18.3, 17 Jacksonville 16 13.2
65% 12 Tampa Bay 27 20.2, 19 Atlanta 0 15.7
64% 11 Kansas City 34 30.5, 21 Oakland 27 25.7
63% 29 Detroit 26 19.8, 31 Arizona 12 15.9
63% 16 Carolina 32 25.3, 26 New Orleans 21 21.2
62% 5 San Diego 20 24.3, 8 Denver 17 20.9
48% 10 Buffalo 42 16.9, 14 Miami 32 17.3
38% 30 Washington 31 13.8, 23 New York Giants 7 16.4
38% 25 Chicago 24 19.9, 13 Minnesota 14 23.2
30% 20 Cincinnati 27 16.3, 9 Baltimore 26 22.9
27% 28 Dallas 43 17.1, 18 Seattle 39 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 9 1.04 4 1.02 2 1.23 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.9 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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