prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 2 New England 21 38.0, 32 San Francisco 7 12.6
72% 10 Baltimore 30 20.5, 18 Miami 23 13.4
67% 12 Green Bay 31 23.6, 30 Chicago 14 18.2
66% 15 Seattle 28 25.3, 22 Atlanta 26 20.0
64% 20 Tennessee 24 26.4, 25 Detroit 19 21.7
56% 29 New York Giants 28 20.1, 27 Dallas 24 19.1
51% 7 San Diego 24 30.1, 3 Kansas City 17 30.0
48% 16 Jacksonville 13 19.4, 24 Oakland 6 19.7
39% 6 Pittsburgh 29 17.0, 5 Buffalo 24 19.5
38% 26 Washington 21 20.8, 13 Minnesota 18 23.9
38% 9 Denver 33 25.2, 1 Indianapolis 14 28.7
36% 28 Arizona 12 14.4, 14 Tampa Bay 7 18.7
35% 23 St. Louis 32 16.4, 8 New York Jets 29 21.0
31% 19 New Orleans 21 19.6, 11 Carolina 18 26.5
24% 31 Cleveland 22 13.7, 17 Houston 14 22.7
21% 21 Cincinnati 38 17.0, 4 Philadelphia 10 29.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.27 9 0.52 3 0.44 0 0.00 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 7 10.5 0.66
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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