prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 8 Philadelphia 27 26.4, 14 Minnesota 14 19.6
67% 1 New England 20 28.4, 2 Indianapolis 3 22.5
62% 6 Pittsburgh 20 19.9, 9 New York Jets 17 16.7
50% 22 Atlanta 47 22.3, 17 St. Louis 17 22.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.99 3 1.51 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 4 4 2.5 1.61
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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