prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 1 Philadelphia 23 24.9, 22 Oakland 20 6.3
80% 20 Dallas 34 32.0, 32 San Francisco 31 16.5
78% 16 Seattle 37 28.5, 30 Arizona 12 15.4
75% 6 Tampa Bay 17 21.1, 27 Green Bay 16 11.0
72% 8 Indianapolis 13 19.9, 19 Cleveland 6 12.2
60% 15 Miami 27 19.8, 10 Carolina 24 17.5
54% 14 Atlanta 24 14.4, 23 Buffalo 16 13.7
40% 26 St. Louis 31 19.7, 17 Tennessee 27 22.3
38% 24 San Diego 45 17.6, 7 New York Giants 23 21.7
38% 3 Cincinnati 24 16.0, 2 Chicago 7 19.7
36% 12 Jacksonville 26 5.7, 11 New York Jets 20 9.9
32% 28 Minnesota 33 11.7, 13 New Orleans 16 18.0
24% 25 Denver 30 14.7, 5 Kansas City 10 24.8
21% 21 New England 23 12.2, 4 Pittsburgh 20 24.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.15 4 0.00 6 0.87 1 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 7 9.7 0.72
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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