prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
81% 4 Tampa Bay 17 25.1, 23 Detroit 13 11.0
78% 1 Cincinnati 16 28.7, 29 Houston 10 15.1
76% 10 Atlanta 30 27.8, 27 Minnesota 10 16.4
69% 11 New York Giants 44 26.7, 22 St. Louis 24 19.2
69% 7 Carolina 32 25.3, 25 Green Bay 29 17.8
67% 19 Oakland 19 25.5, 15 Dallas 13 19.6
63% 31 Baltimore 13 18.4, 24 New York Jets 3 14.9
60% 16 Washington 20 19.1, 13 Seattle 17 16.6
56% 2 Indianapolis 31 21.9, 26 Tennessee 10 20.4
39% 28 New Orleans 19 18.6, 18 Buffalo 7 21.4
38% 5 Philadelphia 37 17.3, 9 Kansas City 31 21.2
36% 32 Arizona 31 21.3, 30 San Francisco 14 26.1
32% 8 San Diego 41 19.3, 6 New England 17 26.0
25% 17 Denver 20 14.4, 14 Jacksonville 7 23.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.72 8 0.77 3 0.87 1 1.24 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.5 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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