prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 1 Indianapolis 45 30.4, 26 St. Louis 28 13.0
77% 2 Denver 28 26.6, 8 New England 20 14.7
75% 16 Buffalo 27 22.8, 24 New York Jets 17 13.3
75% 13 Seattle 42 29.0, 28 Houston 10 18.4
74% 20 Chicago 28 24.1, 30 Minnesota 3 14.4
70% 7 Tampa Bay 27 20.7, 5 Miami 13 14.4
68% 17 Kansas City 28 25.3, 14 Washington 21 18.6
68% 12 Atlanta 34 23.7, 31 New Orleans 31 16.7
62% 27 Baltimore 16 19.7, 18 Cleveland 3 16.0
55% 21 Dallas 16 21.9, 10 New York Giants 13 21.0
52% 4 San Diego 27 23.0, 23 Oakland 14 22.5
47% 9 Cincinnati 31 22.3, 25 Tennessee 23 23.0
45% 15 Carolina 21 21.5, 22 Detroit 20 22.6
23% 19 Jacksonville 23 13.4, 3 Pittsburgh 17 24.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
4 0.93 4 1.49 6 1.09 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 11 9.4 1.17
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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