prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 Jacksonville 21 27.1, 27 Houston 14 13.9
72% 6 Kansas City 27 30.0, 18 Oakland 23 20.7
68% 16 Chicago 20 21.3, 32 New Orleans 17 14.5
67% 7 Seattle 33 23.9, 28 Arizona 19 17.6
67% 4 New York Giants 24 27.0, 31 San Francisco 6 21.1
64% 2 San Diego 31 22.9, 25 New York Jets 26 17.8
63% 30 Minnesota 27 24.8, 23 Detroit 14 19.9
62% 22 Cleveland 20 24.2, 29 Tennessee 14 20.4
59% 1 Indianapolis 40 21.3, 19 New England 21 19.2
49% 21 Washington 17 19.4, 9 Philadelphia 10 19.6
33% 17 Cincinnati 21 13.6, 20 Baltimore 9 19.8
29% 15 Atlanta 17 16.4, 13 Miami 10 23.6
27% 10 Pittsburgh 20 16.0, 8 Green Bay 10 25.1
24% 11 Carolina 34 14.7, 5 Tampa Bay 14 24.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 0.90 7 1.31 5 0.54 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 9 9.4 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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