prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
84% 3 Indianapolis 31 36.3, 32 Houston 17 14.1
79% 1 Jacksonville 30 27.0, 20 Baltimore 3 11.4
77% 19 Chicago 17 25.7, 31 San Francisco 9 13.5
75% 12 Pittsburgh 34 24.8, 24 Cleveland 21 14.6
72% 14 Seattle 31 29.0, 27 St. Louis 16 19.8
67% 22 Detroit 29 23.0, 28 Arizona 21 17.4
64% 5 Carolina 30 22.8, 17 New York Jets 3 17.9
63% 15 Tampa Bay 36 21.2, 7 Washington 35 16.7
60% 21 Buffalo 14 24.0, 8 Kansas City 3 21.4
59% 2 Denver 31 24.0, 25 Oakland 17 22.1
39% 18 Dallas 21 19.2, 26 Philadelphia 20 22.9
36% 11 Green Bay 33 19.4, 10 Atlanta 25 25.2
34% 9 New England 23 16.9, 16 Miami 16 22.3
23% 29 Minnesota 24 15.1, 6 New York Giants 21 27.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.69 7 0.90 5 1.05 1 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 14 10 9.7 1.03
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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