prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 3 Indianapolis 35 33.8, 29 Tennessee 3 14.4
78% 24 Baltimore 16 26.1, 32 Houston 15 14.0
76% 18 Miami 24 21.9, 26 Buffalo 23 12.3
73% 1 San Diego 34 30.5, 21 Oakland 10 20.4
71% 22 New England 16 23.9, 28 New York Jets 3 16.3
67% 9 Tampa Bay 10 22.6, 30 New Orleans 3 16.9
64% 4 Carolina 24 23.5, 12 Atlanta 6 18.7
63% 17 Chicago 19 20.2, 16 Green Bay 7 15.9
63% 11 New York Giants 17 22.2, 10 Dallas 10 18.1
61% 15 Jacksonville 20 20.0, 25 Cleveland 14 17.1
61% 5 Kansas City 31 25.3, 2 Denver 27 22.1
41% 23 Arizona 17 20.7, 31 San Francisco 10 22.6
39% 19 Minnesota 21 19.8, 20 Detroit 16 22.7
38% 14 Washington 24 22.6, 27 St. Louis 9 26.7
35% 7 Seattle 42 18.0, 13 Philadelphia 0 23.2
32% 8 Cincinnati 38 16.6, 6 Pittsburgh 31 23.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 0.00 10 0.95 4 1.34 1 1.21 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 16 11 10.7 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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